Maybe I Understated The Situation

by TKOEd • Wednesday, Dec 17, 2008 • 2 responses - join us

The GOP is increasingly becoming a southern party.

I am. At least according to this great post by Nate over @ at 538. The money shot:

The upshot of this is that the House popular vote tends to discount those areas where a party is so dominant as to discourage competition, because less competition in a district also means fewer votes in that district. Congressional Districts have roughly the same number of people as one another, and so a fairer way to evaluate the House might simply be take the average of the vote share received by each party across all 435 districts (giving a candidate credit for 100 percent of the vote when he runs unopposed). If we do things this way, then we find that the Democrats won, on average, 56.0 percent of the vote on November 4th, and the Republicans 41.3 percent. That’s a difference of 14.7 points, far more formidable than nominal 8.9 point advantage that the popular vote total gave them.

Even in districts where the Republicans did compete, moreover, they were often not truly competitive. The Democrats had 126 districts that they won by 40 points or more (including races that they won uncontested); these are what I call Democrat-Dominant Districts (DDD’s). These districts represent approximately half of the Democratic seats in the House, and nearly 30 percent of the House in its entirety. By contrast, the Republicans had only had 30 districts that they won by 40 or more points, of which 22 are in the South.

The shorter version is the GOP is fucked & doubly so if the Dems do some serious redistricting after the next census, but seriously you need to read the whole post & check out the graphs. Beautiful work by Mr. Silver as usual.

It Ain’t Over ‘Til It’s Over But…

by TKOEd • Tuesday, Oct 7, 2008 • no responses - be the first

A month out & things are looking very, very good.
It’s pretty much all GOTV efforts now. If you’ve been following fivethirtyeight.com’s running coverage of various state GOTV ops by the McCain & Obama camps you know it’s not looking good for Sen. McCain:

Let’s be clear. We’ve observed no comparison between these ground campaigns. To begin with, there’s a 4-1 ratio of offices in most states. We walk into McCain offices to find them closed, empty, one person, two people, sometimes three people making calls. Many times one person is calling while the other small clutch of volunteers are chatting amongst themselves. In one state, McCain’s state field director sat in one of these offices and, sotto voce, complained to us that only one man was making calls while the others were talking to each other about how much they didn’t like Obama, which was true. But the field director made no effort to change this. This was the state field director.

Ouch. The whole post is a must read for people trying to get a handle on the campaigns respective ground games.

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